Yesterday there were 5 aftershocks greater than 4 magnitude. Some innocent people are still getting scared. People are discussing about aftershocks everywhere. But what about foreshocks? Foreshocks’ discussion has been overshadowed in Nepal.
Foreshocks
What are foreshocks? As we call ‘afershocks’ to the shocks after the mainshock {main earthquake}, the shocks before the mainshock are called ‘foreshocks’. Similarly, as aftershocks can happen after minutes to more than year of the mainshock, foreshocks also can happen before minutes to years of the mainshock. For example ‘2002 Sumatra Earthquake’ is regarded as the foreshock of the ‘2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake’. Geologists say that about 70% of the earthquake with more than 7 magnitude can have foreshocks. That means, we can predict large earthquake by analysing the foreshocks pattern happened minutes to years ago, though that can’t be always right. Wikipedia says that ‘1975 Haicheng Earthquake’ occurred in China had been predicted previously by analysing the increase in seismic activity {foreshocks} which triggered an evacuation of the place under the command of the political leaders just a day before the disaster takes place. There are many such examples in the history.
Now the question goes ‘’Did ‘Nepal Earthquake 2015’ have foreshocks?’’ Nepalese geologists say that this earthquake occurred at once without any foreshocks. But I personally believe that there must be foreshocks as chances are high that the earthquake more than 7 magnitude has foreshocks naturally. Moreover the shocks greater than 4 magnitude in Nepal were frequent around the month of the large earthquake. 2 earthquakes were more than 5 magnitude. Before 2 days of the large earthquake, an earthquake with more than 4 magnitude occurred making Kaski epicentre which is near Gorkha district. Gorkha was the epicentre of the Nepal Earthquake 2015. Though it is my personal opinion, I believe that those shocks were the foreshocks of the main earthquake occurred on 25th April 2015. The 5.9 earthquake originated in Solukhumbu district of Nepal on 18th December 2014 was the main foreshock of this Earthquake.
New Formula to predict Earthquake
While studying foreshocks to estimate future earthquake, I have accidentally discovered a new idea to predict the large earthquake before it occurs. Let’s think that this is the right formula to know the large earthquake before it shakes. This formula is specially for Nepal and it may not comply with other countries as land features are different in different countries. However it can be a reference to all conditions especially in the area similar to Nepal. So now I want to drop the topic of foreshock here and I am going to present my own idea to predict earthquake. I hope it will be taken seriously by everyone especially by the concerned authorities and lives could be saved anywhere in the future.
First of all let me tell you how can I say that nature has already given signal of the Nepal Earthquake 2015 which no one noticed. After studying the past earthquakes of Nepal through Nepal Seismological Centre, I have noted down the following important information.
Year Earthquake
2011 46
2012 37
2013 25
2014 11
Above is the record of earthquakes of Nepal with more than 4 magnitude happened in the past 4 years. The data clarifies that the earthquakes were decreasing every year from 2011 AD. In 2014 only 11 earthquakes took place. Then Nepal experienced 7.6 ML high earthquake in 2015.
I have noticed similar patterns in many medium and large earthquakes of Nepal. The above mentioned example is only for representation.
Now with the help of the above information, we can make a formula:
Higher the frequency, Lower the magnitude
Lower the frequency, Higher the magnitude
{Only earthquakes above 4 ML or more are considered }
Let me make it clearer. There were only 11 shocks in 2014. In 2015 before the large earthquake {4 months}, there were only 6 shocks that resulted 7.6 ML high earthquake on 25 April. So now we can say that having only 11 earthquakes in 2014 was the natural signal that Nepal was going to face large earthquake more than 7 magnitude in 2015. Same condition occurred in the most of the medium and large earthquakes in the past.
Next time, if seismograph of Nepal shows fewer earthquakes {around 10} in Nepal in any year, the country should prepare for the next large earthquake {more than 7 ML} immediately. In this way I can give surprise to everyone saying that the seismograph which measures the earthquake is the right device to predict future earthquake.
This is my rough estimation. I could go more in-depth if I got all information through seismograph. Moreover, I could estimate future earthquakes more accurately, if I got 1 year free time to study on it.
Is there any chance of large earthquake in the recent month?
If earthquakes are few, there will be accumulation of energy. So there will be large blast leading a large earthquake. But if earthquakes are frequent {many}, there will be less energy accumulated that will escape the chance of large earthquake. The above made formula represents this scientific fact.
This is the reason currently there is only 0.01% chance of large earthquake in Nepal because after the big blast on 25 April, the accumulated energy has been released. Moreover the rest of the energy is being released with hundreds of aftershocks. Nepal has experienced more than 150 aftershocks and it is still going on. I think Nepal will experience more than 200 aftetshocks over the next month. It is equal to the earthquakes of several years in the past. Now for another big blast, there should be huge energy accumulation which will take many decades. So there is no chance of large earthquake in the recent month. As aftershocks are more in the recent days that have increased the time {years} of large earthquake. So there is no matter to worry.
When is the next large earthquake in Nepal?
I think at least 10 years we should not even think over the next large earthquake in Nepal. Earthquake is taking place in Nepal due to the collision of the Indian and Tibetan tectonic plates. Now the accumulated energy created due to the pressure of Indian plate towards Tibetan plate has been released. Many aftershocks also have been taken place. If we apply the above mentioned formula that says that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal before 50/60 years. Yes, if this earthquake had not been a large earthquake {had been less than 8 magnitude}, then we could have said there will be next glance of 1990 earthquake in Nepal in a few years. But this is about 8 magnitude {7.6 ML, 7.8 MW, 8.1 MS} earthquake. Now it takes about a century to accumulate similar energy. So there is no chance of another large earthquake in this century. However, there will occur earthquakes frequently in Nepal but that will be small and medium level that can rarely harm anyone.
As Nepal experienced another big aftershock of 6.8 ML on 12th May, I have written the second part of this article. If you want to read, you can click here.
{This post has been created to give relief to the people of Nepal who are fearful to the earthquake. It does not guarantee that there won’t be another large earthquake in Nepal. This is the scientific analysis of the author. Common people and the concerned authorities should be cautious towards the earthquake which is natural and can happen anywhere and any time.}
Discovered by Don Prince
